CME Scoreboard
Prediction for CME (2024-03-17T03:36:00-CME-001)
CME Observed Time: 2024-03-17T03:36ZiSWAS Layout URL: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/29631/-1
CME Note: This CME is visible to the S/SE in coronagraph imagery. The source is a filament eruption spanning S45E05 to S15W40 seen in SDO AIA 131, 171, 193, and 304 imagery starting around 2024-03-17T02:30Z. A large western portion of the filament appears to deflect south/southeast, which is likely associated with this event. Dimming is visible from the eruption site in SDO AIA 193 shortly after the filament lifts-off and field line movement can be seen near the S/SW limb at this time in SDO AIA 171. Post-eruptive loops begin to form around 04:30Z. This event partially overlaps CME: 2024-03-17T03:12Z, which also likely stems from the same filament eruption. Arrival signature is likely of a combined arrival of these two CMEs. It is characterized by an increase in magnetic field to 14nT in what is likely the CME sheath, followed after 2024-03-21T10:49Z by smooth rotation of magnetic field components in what is likely the flux rope.
CME Shock Arrival Time: 2024-03-21T01:50Z
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
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Predicted Arrival Time: 2024-03-20T18:26Z (-13.4h, +13.4h)
Prediction Method: ELEvo
Prediction Method Note:
CME input parameters: Apex direction (deg): W24 Inverse ellipse aspect ratio: 0.7 Angular half width (in ecliptic, deg): 35 initial CME speed: 528.5 (+/- 50) km/s initial height: 21.5 R_sun initial time: 2024-03-17T10:36Z drag parameter: 0.1e-7 (+/- 0.025e-7) /km ambient solar wind speed: 400 (+/- 50) km/s time step: 10 min ensemble members: 50kLead Time: 64.35 hour(s)
Difference: 7.40 hour(s)
Prediction submitted by Eva Weiler (ASWO) on 2024-03-18T09:29Z
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